Climate zones in Guernsey, 1991 to 2020
Share of Guernsey's classified land in each Köppen-Geiger zone in 1991 to 2020. Zones under 0.05% are left out. The 115 map cells used cover 90% of the country's outline (about 64 km²).
By major group: C (temperate) 100%.
Almost all of Guernsey is one climate: Cfb, temperate oceanic, which covers 90% of its classified land in 1991 to 2020. In plain terms, temperate oceanic means mild and damp, with no extremes. Under the middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2-4.5), 90% of its land is projected to be in a different zone by 2071 to 2099, with the biggest gain going to Csb (warm-summer mediterranean). The most common zone would then be Csb (warm-summer mediterranean).
How Guernsey's zones have changed and may change
Each row compares a map with 1991 to 2020. "Share in a different zone" is the share of the country's area whose class is different from 1991 to 2020. Future rows are model projections under an emissions scenario, not forecasts.
| Map | Share in a different zone | Different major group | Biggest gain | Biggest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1901 to 1930 (past) | 12% | 0% | No change | No change |
| 2071 to 2099, SSP1-2.6 (low emissions) | 47% | 0% | Csb +45.2 percentage points | Cfb -45.2 percentage points |
| 2071 to 2099, SSP2-4.5 (middle of the road) | 90% | 0% | Csb +90.4 percentage points | Cfb -90.4 percentage points |
| 2071 to 2099, SSP5-8.5 (high emissions) | 90% | 0% | Csb +90.4 percentage points | Cfb -90.4 percentage points |
For the past row, the comparison runs the other way: the 1901 to 1930 map against 1991 to 2020.
Zone shares by map
| Zone | 1901 to 1930 | 1991 to 2020 | SSP1-2.6 (2071 to 2099) | SSP2-4.5 (2071 to 2099) | SSP5-8.5 (2071 to 2099) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cfb Temperate oceanic | 91% | 90% | 45% | - | - |
| Csb Warm-summer Mediterranean | 9.5% | 9.6% | 55% | 100% | 100% |
Percentages are of the country's classified land in each map. A dash means under 0.05%.
Zones found in Guernsey
Data: Beck et al. (2023), CC BY 4.0; country outlines from Natural Earth. In 1901 to 1930 the most common zone was Cfb. See data sources and licences.